Winter Calls

OVERKILL: Too much weather. A storm this Wednesday.

A succession of cold fronts have got Capetonians busting out the wood for their fires, and dusting off their surfboard guns for big wave action.

With the news that we have been selected as one of six locations on the new Big Wave World Tour (BWWT), Dungeons has been ridden more times in the last six weeks than probably the whole of last year!

With the link between the ASP (Association of Surfing Professionals) and the BWWT, big names such as Kelly Slater and other top World Tour pros will be heading our way due to a new wildcard system for ASP surfers.

Apart from 12 BWWT regulars, headed by defending champion Twiggy Baker, the move will – for better or for worse – inject some glamour into the big wave scene, normally the preserve of quietly spoken, grizzly guys wearing wetsuits with built-in hoodies and 10 foot rhino chasers. But it will also add much needed gravitas to what has often been seen as a niche fringe to the surfing mainstream.

Promising Kommetjie charger Matt Bromley cracks the nod as an official ASP wildcard, as worked through the junior ranks of the global system. With the six locals who have been added as an additional group of wildcards - as voted by their peers – a total of eight South Africans will surf in the event.

The six local wildcards are Mike Schlebach, James Taylor, Simon Lowe, Josh Redman, Chris Bertish and Andrew Marr, all from Cape Town, barring Redman.

In terms of the surf forecasting, it was gratifying that the ASP, in keeping with ensuring a strong local contribution to each event, called on myself to assist in making the call.

It’s been quite intimidating rubbing shoulders (virtually of course), with many of the top surfing forecasters and big wave surfers, who have all become pretty good at making the call that fuels their adrenaline lifestyle. It's also been good to know that local knowledge is key and that as South Africans, so used to saying 'sorry' and 'excuse me', we need to take ownership of this.

We have already had two 'close calls', the Friday a week ago yesterday, and Thursday a week ago yesterday.

The eyes of the surf world have been glued to Cape Town for the last month or so as the charts lit up with the first proper swells of winter. The Friday call a couple of weeks ago was easy. The system downgraded enough to stand down. Still, some epic waves were had.

Swell Lines: It fired on Friday 23 May. Photo Bryan Hampshire

The Thursday swell last week was difficult, not least due to pressure from overseas, who got very excited, and for good reason. About eight or nine days prior to last Thursday, the charts showed a 30 foot swell hitting Dungeons, created by an immense storm that had appeared on the forecast.

Some big wave surfers were convinced this was the one. The ASP began to get excited, putting pressure on us to look more closely at local conditions. A yellow standby was made, and people began looking at flights and frantically organising logistics.

This pressure - when people subtly and unknowingly project on you the scenario they want - is quite unique. Weather forecasters must get it too: an unconscious suggestion to err on the side of expectation rather than science.

Fortunately for this forecaster, as the excited phone calls and emails began to bounce around the digital ether like pinballs, the huge storm suddenly disappeared.

It didn’t quite vanish, but it disintegrated into a series of scattered low pressure chunks, becoming an amorphous mass, with insufficient wind speeds and directions to deliver. There was enough doubt, and we stood down.

However, it gave us something to work off: a way to calibrate for the next forecast. It was also a stark reminder that in the Cape of Storms, almost in the Roaring Forties, big wave forecasting in winter should come off a base of pessimism, and you work from there.

It was just as well we stood down. The waves were too small. They came from the wrong direction. The weather was terrible, and the wind was wrong.

Can't get worse than that.