Northern Lights go On

WAVE FRONT: Main swell misses, but overall energy is huge. Image: Stormsurf.com

So everyone is probably jumping on planes and burning up more fossil fuels to get to Hawaii because the Eddie might go, but they could easily be told on the day, like they were two weeks ago, that the Eddie won't go. Scores of big wave legends will pack up their gear, and get on a plane home - again. Granted, they'll probably ride a few big waves at Jaws or Waimea or Sunset before the flight.

Surf forecasting is not an easy science, and I sympathise with the organisers of the Quiksilver in Memory of Eddie Aikau, the WSL's most prestigious Specialty Event, who have made this call. There must be pressure to run the event in an El Nino year that has seen big wave surfing reach a whole new realm after consistent giant swells in all the right places, and yet you've only banked nine events in 31 years.

Anyway, they're anticipating "Hawaiian scale 20- to 25-feet, with occasional larger waves (wave face heights of 40- to 50-feet or more), and 10-knot trade winds".

To me, perhaps stunted by inferior southern hemisphere forecasting methology, and the scepticism that comes from getting skunked by Dungeons so many times over the years, it looks like the main chunk of the swell passes north of Hawaii, with the islands picking up the southern fringes of the swell front.

CURVED EARTH: When you place great circle lines over the chart, viola ! Image: Stormsurf.com

However, I spoke to Mark Sponsler, that venerated Mavericks forecaster from Stormsurf, who reminded me about the great circle path - the curvature of the earth that deceives the flat plane of the charts.

"After everyone got burned on that last Eddie call, I agree with you (that the main brunt moves north of Hawaii). But in looking at the wave model and the great circle paths, it seems there should be plenty of energy pushing down the paths to HI," he told me.

"Take a look here: http://www.stormsurf.com/flash_apps/height_npac.shtml - click the 'HI' great circle path overlay. The imagery is a mix of hindcast data and forecast data. But so far, it seems like a good amount of energy from the core of the storm is pushing down the great circle paths to the Islands."

The actual call takes place early Thursday morning (around 6 or 7 pm in the evening SA time - Hawaii is 12 hours behind us) at the bay, but from what I can see on the charts, the main swell may not have quite arrived yet - the curse of event forecasting.

Event director Glen Moncata said: “These systems are very hard to predict so we will set up for the event, but we will not make the final call until Thursday morning. We don’t want to disappoint anybody and we will leave it up to the Bay to call the day on Thursday.”

Ah ha. The bay calls the day. The 31-year caveat.

I would resort to this, and other subtley introduced disclaimers like "very hard to predict" in an otherwise affirmative forecast. It's a kind of insurance for when you have to deliver bad news later. My trick is to (sometimes, when its white knuckle time) use broad spectrum adjectives to downplay the conditions. Be a bit vague, a little non-specific - almost like introducing doubt in your own call should the swell not transpire like you said!

TABLE MOUNTAIN REEF: Twiggy wins XXL in 2008/9. Pic: Brenton Geach / Billabong XXL.com

However, Twiggy Baker does not agree with my pessimism: "My feeling are this one is a slam dunk Steve, if anything it might be too big? The main part of the swell is aimed at us and only as it dies does it point away and move away which is giving us the good winds."

The swell tomorrow is the second swell after one arrived earlier in the week. The press release says: "this Thursday’s swell is the second of two giant back-to-back swells to hit Oahu’s North Shore this week. The first arrived true to forecast this-morning in the 25- to 30-foot range at its peak, stormy, with shorter period swell as expected."

That's another positive signal based on northern hemisphere seas, so heck, what do I know?

Heat Draw:

Round 1/Heat 1
Shane Dorian (HAW)
Kohl Christensen (HAW)
Greg Long (USA)
Ramon Navarro (CHL)
Sunny Garcia (HAW)
Ross Clarke-Jones (AUS)
Jamie Mitchell (AUS)

Round 1/Heat 2
Kelly Slater (USA)
David Wassell (HAW)
Grant Baker (ZAF)
Reef McIntosh (HAW)
Jamie O’Brien (HAW)
Aaron Gold (HAW)
Tom Carroll (AUS)

Round 1/Heat 3
John John Florence (HAW)
Mark Healey (HAW)
Clyde Aikau (HAW)
Nathan Fletcher (USA)
Noah Johnson (HAW)
Peter Mel (USA)
Takayuki Wakita (JPN)

Round 1/Heat 4
Bruce Irons (HAW)
Makua Rothman (HAW)
Ian Walsh (HAW)
Albee Layer (HAW)
Kala Alexander (HAW)
Garrett McNamara (HAW)
Jeremy Flores (FRA)

Round 2/Heat 1
Shane Dorian (HAW)
Kohl Christensen (HAW)
Greg Long (USA)
Reef McIntosh (HAW)
Jamie O’Brien (HAW)
Aaron Gold (HAW)
Tom Carroll (AUS)

Round 2/Heat 2
Kelly Slater (USA)
David Wassell (HAW)
Grant Baker (ZAF)
Ramon Navarro (CHL)
Sunny Garcia (HAW)
Ross Clarke-Jones (AUS)
Jamie Mitchell (AUS)

Round 2/Heat 3
John John Florence (HAW)
Mark Healey (HAW)
Clyde Aikau (HAW)
Albee Layer (HAW)
Kala Alexander (HAW)
Garrett McNamara (HAW)
Jeremy Flores (FRA)

Round 2/Heat 4
Bruce Irons (HAW)
Makua Rothman (HAW)
Ian Walsh (HAW)
Nathan Fletcher (USA)
Noah Johnson (HAW)
Peter Mel (USA)
Takayuki Wakita (JPN)

Alternates List
Mason Ho (HAW)
Danilo Couto (BRA)
Mark Mathews (AUS)
Koa Rothman (HAW)
Ben Wilkinson (AUS)
Jamie Sterling (AUS)
Billy Kemper (HAW)
Shawn Dollar (USA)
Carlos Burle (BRA)
Kealii Mamala (HAW)
Gabriel Villaran (USA)
Michael Ho (HAW)
Kai Lenny (HAW)
Kahea Hart (HAW)
Nathan Florence (HAW)
Damien Hobgood (USA)
Kalani Chapman (HAW)
Ryan Hipwood (AUS)
Danny Fuller (HAW)
Nic Lamb (USA)
Anthony Tashnick (HAW)
Rusty Long (HAW)
Derek Dunfee (USA)
Brock Little (HAW) - Honorable inclusion