Epic Cyclone Swell Ahead

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Cyclone Emnati, the fifth named cyclone this season after Ana, Batsirai, Cliff and Dumako, is sitting just northwest of Reunion and Mauritius off Madagascar in the Indian Ocean, with a potent central pressure of 959mb.

This core pressure weakens to the 970s and then 980s as Cyclone Emnati skirts down the east coast of Madagascar causing stiff winds and torrential rains, but only really making landfall as it clips across southern Madagascar late Tuesday and Wednesday morning, before barrelling into the ocean later on Wednesday.

Overnight Wednesday into early Thursday, Emnati has weakened to 990mb, which is still enough to cause a vast band of high intensity winds and a broad, shotgun fetch of ocean south of the eye, which is shooting its load towards the Mozambican and KZN coastline. By Friday, wind velocity and fetch are at their peak ESE of Durban, and internal winds are gusting to 60 knots.

WIND ON FRIDAY 1pm: Intense east to SE gales are gusting to 60 knots. Photo Windy

Swell travel time? 24 hours. That means, expect building solid 4-5' building ENE swell in Durban on Wednesday, getting bigger Thursday to six foot with more East in the direction, and then Friday, following the peak blast of storm action the day before, the grunt of the east swell begins to peak at 8-10ft+.

A fresh to strong southerly is due for Friday, and while relatively sheltered, the strength of the southerly is not ideal as direct east swell pounds the piers with relentless abandonement, with minimum lulls and sideshore winds scuffing endless sets off the conveyor belt, with some waves upwards of 12ft.

In terms of wind, Saturday is the day. By then, combined with an early landbreeze and an easing SW, winds are kiff and crisp offshore, and the swell direction has eased behind the break-water (after the direct head-on east swell of Friday) with the SE swell bending nicely onto the northern piers after the storm moved SE 24 hours before.

SWELL FRIDAY 1pm: The fetch is producing some pretty large waves by now. Photo Windy

Sunday will be off its face, with a 6ft solid SE swell in much more organised and makeable conditions, brushed by perfect crisp offshore winds. With the swell direction having eased even more around towards the south, but still SE, it should be firing, with some order to the lineup as the breakwater filters out the swell trains and sets become more like sets.

Even Monday could be epic. A light to glassy start to the day and continued 4-5ft SE lines if not some six footers. By Tuesday, a dying swell and a building NE onshore signals the end of the party. Make hay while the bombs grind!

SWELL SATURDAY 8am: The swell is still peaking with some pretty big sets. Photo Windy