Cyclone Plot Thickens

Friday 20 January 2012

The cyclone plot thickens this weekend in the form of a virulent low pressure pimple that suppurates east of Madagascar, before popping out from behind her southern shores late Saturday, writes Spike.

The shotgun blast from the second cyclone of the season begins to spray around the corner of Madagascar from early Sunday, and the fetch settles into a proper swell-forming blow through Sunday and Monday when the southern end of the storm fetch firmly faces the African mainland.

From Sunday to Tuesday, a solid 12 second groundswell churns across the southern Mozambique Channel. By Tuesday afternoon, the coast between southern Mozambique and KwaZulu-Natal begins to grind as cyclone swell builds consistently.

At first, the surf resembles a messy splodge of scattered sizes and periods between four and six feet, but by end Tuesday and especially Wednesday, the swell slams through at a solid 15' + along the focal point of the swell area (KZN North to southern Mozambique), becoming smaller the further south and north you go. Of course, the southeast coast of Madagascar still cops the most serious of the carnage. You're talking 30'+ surf there.

Meanwhile, deep in the northern Mozambique Channel this weekend, another red mite spins into being, and by Sunday into Monday, the tropical storm has deepened into a staunch cyclone. The amazing thing is that if the Global Forecast System is correct, this beast of a storm, which peaks at an incredibly powerful 960 mb, sits there for six days, moving very slowly south, half on the coast, the other half in the ocean, before suddenly accelerating straight off the 'bulge' from where heavy weather has been smacking places like Imhambane, and spiralling into the sea and down towards the KZN coast.

During her stay in Mozambique, mayhem is in store for the coastal dwellers as the storm tears down the coastline. In fact, the proximity to the coast suggest wonky, nasty east winds during the week as far south as KZN, but her rapid southerly track on Friday sees her move into the sea and by the next day, viola, she's right off the coast of KZN, and winds are busting SW.

Could be an insane weekend of waves between the sticks. Watch this space.